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LiveWire Group, Inc. (LVWR)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue was $2.74M, down 43.9% YoY and down 74.5% QoQ, with operating loss improving to $20.7M from $30.4M YoY on sharp OpEx cuts; net loss narrowed to $19.3M from $23.6M YoY .
  • Management withdrew 2025 unit guidance and lowered full-year operating loss target to below $60M (≈$59M) from $70–$80M; cash burn target cut to $49M from ≤$60M, reflecting aggressive cost actions and focus on sustainability .
  • Segment trends: Electric Motorcycles units fell to 33 (from 117), revenue to $0.4M; STACYC units fell to 1,970, revenue to $2.3M; STACYC softness tied to supply chain and distributor declines, while Electric Motorcycle OpEx reductions drove better operating loss .
  • Stock narrative catalysts: guidance withdrawal (uncertainty), improved loss/cash burn outlook (positive), European market expansion (Poland, Portugal, Finland, Belgium), and first fleet customer wins (St. Cloud Police) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Consolidated operating loss improved by $9.7M YoY (to -$20.7M), driven by a $7.8M decrease in selling, administrative and engineering expense from headcount streamlining and cost actions .
  • Management lowered FY25 operating loss target to below $60M (≈$59M) and cash burn to $49M, signaling confidence in cost discipline and reduced cash usage versus prior targets .
  • Strategic progress: entry into four European markets and launch of S2 Alpinista; first fleet customers secured (“thank you Police Department of St Cloud, Florida for your trust and business,” said CEO Karim Donnez) .

What Went Wrong

  • Demand softness: Electric Motorcycle units declined to 33 (from 117) with revenue down 66% YoY; STACYC units down 33% with revenue down 38% YoY .
  • STACYC faced supply chain delays, less favorable product mix, and decreased third-party distributor sales, pressuring segment revenue and limiting recovery despite reduced advertising spend .
  • Non-operating tailwind moderated: change in fair value of warrants and interest income declined YoY, reducing non-operating benefits versus prior-year levels .

Financial Results

Headline Metrics (Consolidated)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$4.45 $10.76 $2.74
Operating Loss / EBIT ($USD Millions)($26.53) ($25.24) ($20.67)
Net Income ($USD Millions)($22.69) ($22.78) ($19.27)
Diluted EPS ($USD)($0.11) ($0.11) ($0.09)
EBIT Margin (%)(596.7%) (234.6%) (753.6%)
Net Income Margin (%)(510.6%) (211.8%) (702.6%)

Notes: Margins computed from cited revenue and EBIT/net loss.

YoY Comparison (Q1 Only)

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$4.98 $2.74
Operating Loss / EBIT ($USD Millions)($30.42) ($20.67)
Net Income ($USD Millions)($23.64) ($19.27)
Diluted EPS ($USD)($0.12) ($0.09)

Segment Breakdown (Q1)

SegmentQ1 2024 UnitsQ1 2025 UnitsQ1 2024 Revenue ($M)Q1 2025 Revenue ($M)Q1 2024 Operating Loss ($M)Q1 2025 Operating Loss ($M)
Electric Motorcycles117 33 $1.2 $0.4 ($29.0) ($19.4)
STACYC2,932 1,970 $3.7 $2.3 ($1.4) ($1.3)

KPIs and Operating Drivers

KPIQ1 2024Q1 2025
Selling, Administrative & Engineering Expense ($M)$26.30 $18.50
Net Cash Used During the Quarter ($M)$26.87 $18.22
Cash & Cash Equivalents (Period-End, $M)$141.03 $46.22

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Operating LossFY 2025$70–$80M Below $60M; ≈$59M Lowered (improved)
Cash Burn / Net Cash UsedFY 2025≤$60M $49M Lowered (improved)
Electric Motorcycle Unit SalesFY 20251,000–1,500 units Withdrawn Withdrawn

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3–Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
EV adoption/market sizeQ3: U.S. EV challenged; still leading U.S. on-road EV segment ; Q4: 612 units FY, loss improving Heavyweight 2-wheel EV market “limited in size”; focus on cost, cash burn Worsening demand narrative
Cost reduction/OpEx disciplineQ3: Headcount streamlined; OpEx down ; Q4: $9M OpEx cut in Q4; productivity program Expenses down >30% YoY; FY OL/cash burn targets cut Improving cost execution
Supply chain impact (STACYC)Q3: Distributor volume decline Product availability delays; mix/distributor declines Persistent headwind
Tariffs/macroQ4: Tariff mitigation plans; macro softness Withdrawing HOG 2025 guidance; detailed tariff exposure discussion Elevated uncertainty
Capital support from H-DQ4: HOG capital allocation, share buybacks; LiveWire plan HOG: no additional investments beyond $100M LOC; LVWR may seek external capital Tightening support
Market expansion/productsQ3: EICMA new segment planned Entered Poland, Portugal, Finland, Belgium; S2 Alpinista launch Positive footprint growth

Management Commentary

  • “Expenses are down by over 30% compared to the prior year same quarter… We opened four new countries in Europe and introduced LiveWire S2 Alpinista… and secured our first fleet customers” — CEO Karim Donnez .
  • “LiveWire now expects operating losses of approximately $59 million and a cash burn of $49 million… Harley-Davidson does not plan to provide additional investments into LiveWire beyond the line of credit… up to $100 million” — HOG CEO Jochen Zeitz .
  • “On a unit basis, LiveWire reported sales of 33 units in Q1… The uncertain macro environment is weighing on the consumers’ discretionary appetite for early-stage EV products” — HOG CFO Jonathan Root .

Q&A Highlights

  • HDFS strategic exploration: Management clarified no imminent sale; evaluating a structure to demonstrate premium value and secure long-term funding optionality while maintaining strategic benefits .
  • Tariffs: Largest exposure from China’s 145% duties; mitigation via shipment timing, supply chain diversification, cost controls, potential pricing actions; guidance withdrawn amid fluid policy landscape .
  • Model-year cadence: Shift to fall launch beginning with some MY26 models; aim to extend season without loading dealers; inventory reduction remains a priority .
  • Pricing/promotions: Competitors discounting; LVWR/HOG pursuing targeted promotions; pricing/mix sensitivity acknowledged given high-ticket discretionary dynamics .
  • LiveWire path to sustainability: Continued BOM and cost cuts, focus on segments/markets where EV can “better shine”; internal goal to improve contribution margin .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus for Q1 2025 was unavailable for EPS and revenue; we could not retrieve estimate counts or mean values to benchmark a beat/miss. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Actual Q1 2025 revenue: $2.74M . EPS: ($0.09) . Without consensus coverage, estimate revisions are likely to focus on lower OpEx trajectory and reduced FY25 loss/cash burn guidance.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Cost execution is the near-term story: LVWR’s >30% OpEx reduction and improved loss/cash burn targets are tangible positives against weak demand .
  • Demand remains the core risk: Heavyweight 2-wheel EV adoption is slower than anticipated; Q1 units and revenue declines underscore sensitivity to macro and incentives .
  • Guidance reset is double-edged: Withdrawal of unit guidance adds uncertainty, but tighter FY25 loss/cash burn targets improve runway and discipline .
  • Segment dynamics matter: STACYC’s supply chain/distributor challenges weighed on revenue; watch resolution and new product timing to support topline stabilization .
  • Strategic optionality: HOG’s stance on no additional investment beyond the LOC means LVWR must execute cost/control and potentially seek external capital; any structure affecting HDFS may indirectly influence funding economics .
  • Geographic expansion and fleet wins could seed demand: New EU markets and fleet customers provide footholds; monitor order momentum and repeat purchases .
  • Trading lens: Near-term volatility likely around tariff developments and unit visibility; positives are cost cadence and improved FY25 loss outlook—position sizing should incorporate execution on supply chain and any external capital signals .

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.